This year’s Global Carbon Budget reveals a significant increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels, signalling an intensifying climate crisis as the world struggles to control its carbon footprint.

Leader of the research, Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, explained: “The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked.

“Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals – and world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels.”

Record-breaking emissions amid climate urgency

The Global Carbon Project’s findings show that fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024, marking a 0.8% rise from 2023.

Combined with 4.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions from land-use changes such as deforestation, total emissions are expected to climb to a staggering 41.6 billion tonnes, surpassing last year’s 40.6 billion tonnes.

Despite global pledges to curb fossil fuel emissions to counter climate change, scientists indicate that there’s still “no sign” of emissions peaking.

Emissions from fossil fuels have continued to climb over the past decade, highlighting that although CO₂ from land-use changes has decreased slightly in recent years, it is projected to rise again this year.

Moreover, the impact of climate events like the recent El Niño has worsened emissions from forest degradation and wildfires, especially in Brazil and Canada.

Fossil fuel breakdown: Coal, oil, and gas

In 2024, fossil fuel emissions are largely driven by coal, oil, and natural gas, which account for 41%, 32%, and 21% of global CO₂ emissions, respectively.

Emissions from oil and gas are anticipated to increase by 0.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while coal emissions may see a slight 0.2% uptick, though there’s a small chance they could decline.

Regionally, China remains the largest emitter, responsible for 32% of global fossil fuel emissions, with its total emissions projected to increase by 0.2%.

Conversely, the United States and European Union are set to see modest decreases of 0.6% and 3.8%, respectively, while India’s emissions are expected to rise by a notable 4.6%.

Emissions from international aviation and shipping, which contribute 3% of global fossil fuel CO₂, are projected to jump 7.8% in 2024, although they remain below pre-pandemic levels.

Growing atmospheric CO₂ levels

Atmospheric CO₂ levels are expected to reach 422.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2024—2.8 ppm above 2023 levels and approximately 52% higher than pre-industrial levels.

This continued rise in CO₂ concentration intensifies the risk of crossing critical climate thresholds. Researchers estimate that, at the current pace, the world has roughly six years before consistently exceeding the 1.5°C global warming limit set by the Paris Agreement to prevent severe climate impacts.

Limited role of carbon removal and natural CO₂ sinks

While reforestation and afforestation efforts are mitigating some CO₂ emissions from deforestation, permanent CO₂ removal via natural and technological means is insufficient to offset the rise in emissions.

Current technological solutions for carbon capture cover only a minuscule fraction of CO₂ from fossil fuels. Natural CO₂ sinks, such as forests and oceans, are absorbing about half of all emissions but are increasingly strained by the impacts of climate change.

A ticking clock for climate action

With the global carbon budget rapidly depleting, the urgency for meaningful action to reduce fossil fuel emissions has never been greater.

Scientists warn that without substantial reductions, the world is on track to face the irreversible consequences of climate change, with intensified weather events, ecosystem disruptions, and human health risks.

As international efforts to limit emissions falter, the Global Carbon Project’s latest report serves as a critical reminder of the challenges ahead.

The window to effectively address fossil fuel emissions is closing fast, with the future of global climate stability hanging in the balance.